de Montfort Replying James_Young 2:13am Mon 18 Jan 16
James, thank you for reading Patria’s manifesto and commenting on it.
You make an excellent point about house price inflation – which is caused by mass immigration.
You make another excellent point about the German economy, its successful manufacturing sector and its relatively high wages.
Obviously, in its early stages of development, expanding manufacturing industry in Britain would need to be sheltered from the chilling effect of cheaper foreign imports by selective import controls.
Currently our country’s population is growing at an unsustainable rate as a result of immigration and the higher birth rate of certain groups of immigrants. Stabilizing the size of our population is both an ecological and political imperative. The unfair competition for jobs to which our own young people are subjected through mass immigration from the rest of the world has contributed to the decline in the birth rate of our English folk. Ending immigration from the Third World and Eastern Europe and deporting the millions here illegally will go far towards increasing the birth rate of the English, as our young people begin to see a future for themselves in their own land.
People are living longer than ever before and sixty will be a voluntary retirement age for the state pension. As now, people may choose to defer taking their pension for a number of years in order to increase its value.
James_Young Replying de Montfort 9:39am Mon 18 Jan 16
Sadly you are wrong. I was convinced that house prices were driven by mass immigration, but when i went looking i could find no evidence. House price inflation is driven by lending. Between 2008 and 2009 the population increased but house prices dropped. Lending, however, was restricted. There is a clear correlation between lending and house prices, but not between population growth and house prices. It seems counter intuitive but i suppose it makes sense – poor immigrants don’t buy houses and when rents increase (again because of the buy to let industry created under Brown) they just share rooms.
Population is increasing, but only temporarily. There are 800,000 fewer 10 to 14 year olds than 50-54 year olds. This includes immigrants This is a very important point since it implies that the UK population will actually be lower in, say, 20 years, than it is now. This is the major reason that your “retire at 60” policy will not work. It is also, i suspect, the reason behind the move towards promoting mass immigration. We need a workforce to pay for our elderly (which by then will include me).
That workforce needs to be “like us”. It also needs to be spread evenly throughout the country based on labour demand, not just thrown into ghettos in London or fruit farms in East Anglia.
The irony is that many railed against Eastern European immigration, but at no point was our security at risk.
de Montfort Replying James_Young 3:44pm Mon 18 Jan 16
So, if I agree with your statement that house price inflation is driven by mass immigration you – change your mind!
Property prices are the outcome of an interplay of supply constraints, such as the shortage of suitable land on which to build new housing and demand, in the shape of willing buyers.
Increase the pool of aspiring purchasers every year through mass immigration and you increase demand. Fail to build a sufficient number of new houses and flats every year and you fail to meet the increased demand.
The result is house price inflation year on year, with only the briefest of pauses as a result of a lending freeze by financial institutions, following the global banking crisis, 2008-09.
This is basic economics.
James_Young Replying de Montfort 5:29pm Mon 18 Jan 16
I changed my mind about 12 months ago. So i don’t know what you are referring to.
“Increase the pool of aspiring purchasers every year through mass immigration and you increase demand.”
Nope. Not backed up by the evidence. New immigrants don’t buy houses.
“Fail to build a sufficient number of new houses and flats every year and you fail to meet the increased demand.”
Nope. New houses are always more expensive than old. We already have more bedrooms per person than most of Europe and the only two countries that have more are Spain and Ireland and look what happened there.
“The result is house price inflation year on year, with only the briefest of pauses as a result of a lending freeze by financial institutions,”
Nonetheless it was a pause, and it was turning into a trend until Osborne announced Help to Buy which, although it “helped” only a handful of families, changed sentiment. You also have to take into account the many other incentives – Funding for Lending (which all went into mortgage lending), stamp duty holidays, build now pay later, help to buy 2, help to buy ISAs that have been introduced and others – 20% discount on new build for under 40s, that have not yet. In every case, they allow the buyer to pay more, which means the seller asks for more. When the stamp duty changes were made a year or so back, i monitored house prices in weymouth for a week after. Out of 68 houses for sale, precisely 7 were increased in asking price by more than £5,000. As the result of a saving of around £3,000 in stamp duty.
de Montfort Replying James_Young 10:57pm Mon 18 Jan 16
None of which alters the fact that you can’t buck the market.
New houses are not always more expensive than old. Other factors also have an effect upon the price, notably location, size of plot and number of bedrooms, etc.
The global banking crisis itself was caused by American mortgage lenders’ reckless lending policies towards blacks, the delightfully euphemistic ‘sub-prime lending’, into which they had been forced by the Clinton administrations.
New immigrants may not immediately be in the market to buy property, but they still want housing. Their presence on housing waiting lists and the rent paid in their name puts upward pressure on property prices by increasing the potential profits available to landlords through buy to let schemes.
Certainly, lending policies can have an effect on prices, but it is a marginal effect. The real driver of property price inflation remains a strictly limited supply of suitable land and an artificially stimulated demand in the shape of population growth caused by mass immigration.